Bets that the economy is stabilizing have given way to concerns that the stock market has gotten ahead of any recovery. Wall Street will be listening to a variety of corporations over the next week as they report quarterly results and give their outlook on future profits and the state of the economy. He said that after the big rally, investors remain on the defensive, staying in cash and waiting for concrete evidence that the economy is starting to turn around.
As you may have heard, Mr. Take a look at the exchange. Looks like I nailed all the key points. The Phillips Curve is bunk. The Fed should not have raised rates. They tightened the screws too much, and that ultimately laid the foundation for the ensuing recession and stock market meltdown.
I think the 50 basis point hike last month was a very radical and ill advised move. I don't think inflation is caused by too many people working or prospering or producing or by economic growth. I think inflation is essentially a monetary problem created by the creation of too much money or excess liquidity by the Fed.
Still sounds pretty good to me. Policymakers at the Fed began their two day meeting today to decide what to do next about interest rates.
They've raised rates six times in the past 12 months. Most economists don't expect a rate hike tomorrow, but expect the Fed to issue another stern warning on inflation risks.
The final decision will be made public at 2: So, is the Fed making the right moves for the economy? And welcome to both you of. Bill, let me start with you.
You think that the Fed's interest rate policy has been right on track. Well, I think the economy has grown above trend for quite some time.
You can see that in the declines in the unemployment rate. That's putting pressure on the labor markets. We're starting to see an up trend in wage costs and I think probably the very best news on inflation is behind us now. So the Fed's, the Fed basically has to plan for the worst, hope for the best, and I think that's what they're doing.
All right now, Larry, what Bill is saying is the majority of you, you are in the minority who are saying that the Fed doesn't need to raise interest rates. Tell us your case. No, I think the 50 basis point hike last month was a very radical and ill-advised move.
And I think a careful glance at some of the leading market price movements, for example, gold, for example, commodities, spot commodities excluding the temporary oil shock, they're both at 20 year lows, I see long-term interest rates coming down.
I see spreads in the bond market beginning to narrow. These are disinflationary signs. So what do you think the Fed should be doing?
Oh, I think the Fed should end the tightening cycle.
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I think if they follow through with this Phillips curve idea that unemployment is too low, if they follow Larry Meyer's view that we need a five percent unemployment rate, that will throw two million people out of work. And I think that would be just a dreadful policy response.
That punishment simply does not fit the non-inflation, non-crime.
Bill, if the Fed listened to Larry what would be the outcome? Well, I think the reality is nobody knows for sure because we have a lot of uncertainties in this economy. We don't know what sustainable productivity growth is.October 16, Kofinas Group Startup Named Finalist in $K Business Plan Competition Blood clotting, drug-delivering product chosen from thousands of international entrants.
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